MAIN WX DISCUSSION

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

POSITIVE TILTED LONG WV UPR TROF OVR PAC WILL SWING TOWARDS BC-WRN US COAST DURG
FCST PD. WITH UPR TROF DIGGING OVR ERN PAC BROAD UPR RDG WILL DEVELOP OVR WRN
CAN DURG FCST PD. WITH BROAD UPR RDG FRMG OVR WRN CAN LONG WV UPR TROF WILL DIG
OVR CNTL CAN-ERN US.
REGGEM STILL DIVERGES A BIT FROM OTHR MODELS AS IT IS FCSTG DEEPER UPR TROF W OF
BC COAST THAN OTHR MODELS. AS A RESULT OF THIS REGGEM IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
OTHR MODELS. NEW ECMWF PROVIDES A MEAN SLTN BTN REGGEM'S SLTN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE OTHR MODELS. A COMPROMISE BTN FASTER GBL AND SLOWER REGGEM IS THUS
ADVISED.

WITH UPR TROF DIGGING OVR CNTL CAN-ERN US STG ZONAL FLO OVR ERN CAN WILL WEAKEN
AS FLO BECOMES DIFFLUENT OVR MRTMS BY 48HRS. CONCENSUS AMONGST MODEL GOOD HERE.

OVR ARTC SERIES OF UPR LO THAT SPREAD FM BFRTS TO DAVIS STRAIT WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVR CNTL ARTC ISLANDS DURG FCST PD. AGAIN CONCENSUS AMONGST MODEL IS
GOOD.

IN SUMMARY STG ZONAL FLAT PATTERN OVR CONTINENT ERLY IN PD WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MUCH MORE AMPL PATTERN DURG FCST PD. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.

SFC FEATURES...
ARN CAN..
COMPLEX LO PRESSURE SYSTEM OVR PAC WITH FNTL TROF XTNDG TO CNTL BC ERLY IN PD
WILL BECOME MORE ORGANISE DURG FCST PD AS UPR LVL PATTERN GAINS AMPL OVR PAC AND
WRN CAN. ALL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A LO DEVELOPPING OVR CHRLTS NRN BC
COAST BY 48HRS WHILE FNTL TROF LFTS SLOLY NWD. AS WAS NOTED AT UPR LVL REGGEM
DIVERGES A BIT FROM OTHR MODELS IN FCSTG MAIN SFC LO FURTHER S BY 48HRS. REGGEM
ALSO IS FCSTG MUCH HIGHER QPF THAN OTHR MODELS ALG BC COAST AND THIS LOOKS
EXAGERATED. WITH UPR LVL FLO BECMG MORE SWLY DURG PD QPF FCST BY REGGEM TOWARDS
END OF PD COULD BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK BUT STILL LOOK TOO HIGH. STEEP BACLIN
ZONE FCST BY ALL MODELS OVR NRN BC-NRN AB SIGNIFIES SIG WX FOR THOSE AREAS. IN
GNL VARIOUS PRODUCTS DERIVED FM REGGEM SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE GUIDANCE FOR
PRBLM AREAS. IN PREVIOUS RUNS REGGEM HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD IN FCSTG STG CHINOOK
LIKE WNDS ALG AB FOOTHILLS AND NEW REGGEM SEEMS TO BE DEALING WITH THIS WELL.

PRAIRIES-CNTL CAN..
AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL IS NOW VRY GOOD WITH SFC LO CENTRALIZING N OF LK
SUPERIOR BY 24HR AND THEN WITH LO SLIDING SEWD TOWARDS NERN US STATES IN THE 24
TO 48HR PD. WK RDG WILL BUILD NWWD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH WRM FNT SLIDING
SLOLY EWD RDG RISK TO BE A BIT MESSY. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO PRESSURE
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY REGGEM AND WITH GOOD CONCENSUS AMONGTS
MODEL NO PRBLM SEEN WITH MODEL.

ERN CAN..
FAST MOVG INTENSIFYING LO JUST OFFSHORE NERN US HAS NOW REACHED WATER AND WITH
STG UPR LVL FLO WILL RACE EWD S OF NS. SYSTEM SEEMS TO CARRY A BIT MORE MOISTURE
THAN INITIALLY FCST BY MODELS BUT REGGEM WAS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AS IT HAS ALWAYS
FCST HIGHER QPF THAN OTHR MODELS. WITH LATEST OBS, RADAR DATA AND SAT PIC
REGGEM MAY STILL BE ON WK SIDE WITH QPF FCST FOR SRN NB BUT STILL GNL PIC GOOD.
ONLY OTHR CONCERN IS BY END OF PD WHERE WE NOTE THAT REGGEM SUPPORTED BY ECMWF
SHOW SIGN OF SECONDARY LO TO DEVELOP NERN US COAST AHD NERN US STATES LO. THIS
SLTN IS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHR MODELS BUT LOOKS REASONNABLE AS COLD AMS REACHES
WATER.

ARTC RGNS...
ALL MODELS TREND TOWARDS SIMILAR SLTN AS SFC FEATURES STILL WILL EVOLVE SLOLY
AS COLD ARTC AMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.


END/BABINEAU

OPERATIONAL RUN STATUS

RUNS ARE ON TIME THIS AM.

GEM MODEL INITIALIZATION FROM 231200 UTC

TRIAL FIELDS AND RUN R1 BOGUS

HGTS CONT TO BE A BIT TOO HI OVR PRAIRIES. UPR TROF FOUND OVR NWRN ON IS A BIT
WK AGAIN THIS AM AND SO IS NRN HSNBA UPR TROF. NIL SIG PROBLEM NOTED IN RH.
NO BOGUS FOR RGNL RUN.

DATA COVERAGE

PART C AND D ARE MISSING FOR NORMAN WELLS.
PART B IS MISSING FOR WHITEHORSE.
OTWZ DATA COVERAGE IS NR NORMAL.

REJECTED DATA

71909 : IQALUIT, NU...500HPA WND IS REJECTED BECAUSE TOO STG.

71945 : FORT NELSON, B.C...850AND 700HPA WNDS ARE WRONGFULLY REJECTED AS
BEING OF WRONG DIR.

72208 : CHARLESTON, S.C...1000HPA TEMP IS WRONGFULLY REJECTED AS TOO COLD
BECAUSE TRIAL FIELD UNDERFCST COLD AIR DAMING ALG APPALACHIANS.

72274 : TUCSON, AZ...250HPA WND IS REJECTED BECAUSE TOO STG.

h&l672 : RIVERTON, WY...700HPA TEMP IS WRONGFULLY REJECTED AS TOO WARN
BECAUSE TRIAL FIELD INVERSION WAS MUCH TOO WK OVR THAT STN.

RUN R1 OA

OA IS FINE THIS AM. JET ACROSS SRN ON HAS BEEN BOOSTED BY 10KT.




GEM PERFORMANCE FOR 24 HR PD ENDING 231200Z

UPR TROF S OF GLFALSK UPR LO WAS FCST TOO DEEP AND RESIDUAL UPR TROF E OF UPR LO
OVR YK WAS KEPT TOO DEEP BY REGGEM 24HR.
HGHTS IN STG BACLIN ZONE OVR AB-SASK WERE KEPT TOO HIGH BY REGGEM 24HR.
FLAT UPR TROF OVR NFLD WAS NOT KEPT DEEP ENOUGH BY REGGEM 24HR. MODEL RAISED
HGHTS TOO FAST THUS FLATTEN UPR TROF TOO MUCH.
OTWS REGGEM 24HR UPR LVL FCST WAS GOOD.

SFC LO OVR GLFALSK AND SFC TROF THAT XTNDS SWD WERE FCST TOO DEEP BY REGGEM
24HR. THIS PRBLM HAS BEEN NOTED WITH REGGEM IN THE PAST FEW RUNS.

SHARP SFC RDG SITTING BTN YK SFC LO AND SERN NWT SFC LO IS STRONGER THAN WAS
FCST BY REGGEM 24HR. ALSO BROAD SFC TROF THAT COVERS PRAIRIES IS DEEPER THAN WAS
FCST BY MODEL. AGAIN REGGEM HAS TRENDED TO BE SLO IN FILLING SFC RDG OVR THIS
AREA.

ELSW OVR CONTINENT REGGEM 24HR VERIFIES WELL BUT TROF OVR LABRDR-NF REMAINED
STRONGER THAN FCST THUS STG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHER THAN WAS FCST BY
MODEL.

QPF FCST BY REGGEM WITH STG WLY INFLO MOIST OVRRG AMS OVR BC COAST WERE AGAIN
TOO HIGH. QPF FCST BY REGGEM WERE ALMOST DOUBLE THE OBS VALUE. ALSO WE HAVE NO
REPORTS TO VERIFY PCPN OVR ROCKIES BUT THE LIMITED ONES AVAILABLE WOULD SUGGEST
THAT QPF FCST BY REGGEM WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE.

QPF FCST BY MODEL OVR PRAIRIES WITH SFC FNTL TROF VERIFIED OK.
SAME WITH QPF FCST BY MODEL WITH SFC TROF OVR CNTL ONT-WRN QC VC SFC TROF THAT
COVERS THIS AREA.

QPF FCST OVR NFLD WERE OK BUT LOCALLY WERE ON THE LOW SIDE.

GEM 12 AND 24 HR PROG

MAIN CHANGE DONE WITH NEW REGGEM 12 AND 24HR IS OVR PRAIRIES WHERE MODEL LOWERED
HGHTS BY 2 TO 4 DAM INITIALLY AND BY 24HR HAS DEEPER LESS PROGRESSIVE LONG WV
UPR TROF OVR ERN US PLAINS. MODEL DEEPEN UPR TROF BY 4 TO 6 DAM. THIS AJUSTMENT
LOOKS OK AS MODEL HAD BEEN TOO WEAK WITH BROAD UPR TROF OVR PRAIRIES AND WITH
STRONGER IMPULSE IT IS NORMAL THAT MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THIS UPR TROF DIGGING
OVR GRTLKS.

NEW REGGEM 12 AND 24HR ALSO MADE MINOR AJUSTMENT TO UPR TROF OVR GLFALSK AS IT
IS NOW FCSTG BROADER UPR THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THIS LOOKS OK.

NEW REGGEM IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH FCST OF UPR TROF MOVG ACCROSS HSNBA
DURG FCST PD.

FINALLY NEW REGGEM IS A TOUCH FASTER WITH UPR TROF MOVG S OF MRTMS IN THE NEXT
24HR. WE SEE NO PRBLM WITH THIS TREND.

SFC FEATURES..
NEW REGGEM 12 AND 24HR MADE ONLY MINOR AJUSTMENT TO FCST OF SFC LO NRN BC COAST
AND FNTL TROF THAT WILL PERSIST ALG ERN SIDE OF ROCKIES. SFC RDG FCST E OF FNTL
TROF HAS BEEN ENHANCE BY NEW OUTPUT AND THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. NEVERTHELESS GNL
PIC FCST BY NEW REGGEM STILL LOOKS OK. WE NOTE THAN CHINOOK LIKE WNDS ALG SRN AB
FOOTHILLS SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24HR AND FNTL TROF REMAINS WELL
POSITION.

FURTHER E NEW REGGEM IS KEEPING STRONGER SFC TROF W-SW OF LO THAT IS FCST TO
MOVG ACCROSS CNTL MB TO LK SUPERIOR DURG FCST PD. NEW OUTPUT IS ALSO LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH UPR TROF AHD OF LK SUPERIOR SFC LO BY 24HR. THIS AJUSTMENT
LOOKS OK. QPF FCST BY REGGEM WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS OK.

SFC LO DEVELOPPING NERN US HAS BEEN DEEPEN BY A FEW MB BY REGGEM 12HR AND QPF
FCST BY REGGEM WERE PUSHED A BIT FURTHER N AND FURTHER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. LATEST
SAT PIC AND RADAR DATA SUPPORT THIS AJUSMENT MADE BY NEW REGGEM AND EVEN WOULD
SUGGEST THAT MODEL'S CORRECTION MAY STILL NOT BE ENOUGH. THEREAFTER WITH SYSTEM
MOVG IN STG CONFLUENT FLO NEW REGGEM IS EVEN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUN FOR 24HR AND THIS LOOKS OK. QPF FCST BY NEW REGGEM WITH THIS
FAST MOVG SFC LO FOR THE 12 TO 24HR LOOK OK.

NEW REGGEM 12 AND 24HR IS SLOWER WITH FCST WK SFC LO MOVG FM ERN HSNBA TO NRN
QC AND THIS LOOKS OK. WK QPF FCST WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS OK.

NO PRBLMS NOTED FOR ARTC RGNS WITH LATEST REGGEM 12 AND 24HR FCST.

END/MARCHAND/BABINEAU

MAIN WX DISCUSSION

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
MDLS SHOW SIMILAR UPR PATTERN EVOLN FOR NEXT 48H. STG JET DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF
XTNDG FM NWRN ON THRU MIDWEST U.S. AT 00Z WILL MAKE FTR TO GRDLY FLATTEN OUT
AS MOVG NELY TWD E CST AND WRN ATLC. MEANWHILE OTHER STG JET DESCENDING WRN
RGNS UPR RDG IS ALLOWING FOR SIG IMPULSE TO DESCEND THRU PRAIRIES TO FORM A
NEW UPR TROF THRU CNTRL RGNS BY 24H. UPR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE GAIN
AMPLITUDE DAY2 AS UPR RDG REBLDS OVR WRN RGNS WHILE DOWNSTREAM UPR TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG THRU GRTLKS AREA. IN THE MEANTIME DEEP UPR LO INITIALLY OVR
SERN ALSK WILL BE GRDLY FILG UP AND MOVG TO NERN GLFALSK WHILE UPR LO
INITIALLY NW OF 40N-160W WILL MV EWD TO NR 48N-140W BY 48H.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ABV GNL FCST EVOLN BUT DIFFER WITH INTENSITY
OF FTRS. NAM IS WEAKER THAN ALL WITH UPR RDG FCST TO BLD UP OVR WRN RGNS WHILE
UKMET IS STRONGER THAN ALL. GEMREG-GFS-ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR INTENSITY AND
REPRESENT A GOOD COMPROMISE. DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOW UP FOR INTENSITY OF
DOWNSTREAM DIGGING UPR TROF AND BY 24H GEMREG-UKMET-GEMGLBL ARE DEEPER THAN
OTHERS. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FX PREVIOUS VERIF AND EFFECT OF STG JET
DESCENDING WRN UPR RDG MAKE US LEAN TWD DEEPER SOLN. ALSO 06Z SFC ANAL EVEN
VERIFYNG DEEPER THAN 06HR PROG.

======================

LO FORMG OVR SRN PRAIRIES AND MOVG THRU NRN ON TWD WRN QC..
IN VIEW OF ABV DISCUSSION, GEMREG GNLY ACCEPTED FOR THIS SYS. GEMREG-GFS-ECMWF
ARE ENDING UP WITH SIMILAR FCST POSN FOR T+48H BUT GEMREG IS A FEW MB DEEPER.
GEMREG ASOCTD FCST WX IS ACCEPTED. SYS TO GV SOME 5-10 CM SNOW ON ITS TRACK
THRU CNTRL SK - SERN MB - NWRN ON AND ALG NRN EDGE OF UPR GRTLKS WITH POSBLY
HIR AMNTS DUE TO ASOCTD INSTBY AND SNOW SQUALLS. AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS FX, STG-SVR WNDS ALREADY SHOWING UP OVR NRN ALTA WILL DESCEND IN
NWLY FLO BHND SYS AND WILL TRACK THRU SERN SK - SRN MB - MN. THESE ARE BEING
GENERATED BY STG LO LVL JET DESCENDING BHND SYS AND LO LVLS INSTBY IN VIEW
OF CAA ALFT. THESE STG-SVR WNDS WILL GV BLOWING SNOW AND BLZD OR NR BLZD
CONDS FOR A WHILE OVR SRN PRAIRIES. SVR WX CHARTS ON IWEB WELL INDICATE
ALL WX WARNING POTENTIALS.
AS VERT SYS MOVES THRU NERN ON TO WRN QC BY END OF PD, QUITE WINDY AND UNSTBL
CONDS ALSO TO BE XPCTD AND EMBDD CVCTV CELLS (TCU) WILL LIKELY INCRS SNOW
AMNTS THRU THIS AREA.

STG WLY FLO ALFT THAT WILL PERSIST ACRS ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STG-SVR
CHINOOK WNDS TO PERSIST UP TO T+36H OVR XTRM SWRN ALTA FOOTHILLS.
THEY WILL TAPER OFF DURG THE DAY TOMORROW AS UPR RDG BLDS UP AND LEE TROF
WEAKENS OUT.

SYS MOVG S OF MRTMS..
MDLS ARE SIMILAR XCP FOR NAM WHICH SHOW MORE SLY TRACK THAN ALL. GEMREG
ACCEPTED AND NRN EDGE OF PCPN OF THIS FAST MOVG SYS WILL ALLOW FOR 5-10 CM
SNOW OVR SWRN NS AND BRUSHING SERN NS CST.

ERN PAC..
NEW ECMWF SIMILAR TO GEMREG WITH 990 MB LO FCST NR 50N-138W BY 48H ALG
WITH SFC TROF XTNDG TO NWRN BC AND NR 997 MB LO CNTR IN THIS AREA. HVY RAIN
AMNTS TO BE XPCTD ALG NRN W CST BUT MAX AMNTS FCST TWD SRN ALSKPHNDL AREA
LOOK OVRDONE.

END/BACHAND

XTNDD RANGE FCST DISCUSSION FOR WED JAN 25 TO FRI JAN 27 2006

MAIN DISCREPANCIES BTN MDLS ARE SHOWING UP OVR ERN PAC AND WRN RGNS FOR XTNDD
PD WHILE MDLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVR ERN RGNS.

UPR PATTERN FCST TO SIGLY GAIN AMPLITUDE DURG SHRT RANGE FCST PD IN VIEW OF
DIGGING UPR TROF THRU PRAIRIES THAT WILL END UP OVR ERN ON - WRN QC AND THRU
ERN U.S. BY T+48H. IN THE MEANTIME UPR RDG WILL BLD UP OVR WRN RGNS WHILE UPR
TROF WILL GET TO ERN PAC ALG 140W. THESE FTRS WILL PROGRESS EWD DURG XTNDD PD
WHILE A COUPLE OF OTHER S/W - UPR TROFS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO ERN PAC.

TIMING OF FTRS THRU ERN PAC AND WRN RGNS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PD.
GFS AND UKMET ARE SMWHT SIMILAR AND SHOW MUCH FASTER PROGRESSION THAN GEMGLBL
FOR UPR TROF FCST TO MV THRU PRAIRIES DURG PD. ON THE OTHER HAND, ECMWF IS
SHOWING SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN GEMGLBL AS WELL FOR THIS FTR AS FOR THE NEXT
UPR TROF FCST TO END UP OVR ERN PAC BY END OF PD. AND UKMET-GFS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF FOR THIS LATTER FTR. SO IT LOOKS GEMGLBL IS TOO FAST
WITH SFC LO OVR NERN PAC BY DAY5. HWVR THERE IS ANOTHER S/W TROF FCST INBTN
THE TWO ABV MENTIONED FTRS. GEMGLBL AND ECMWF ARE IN SMWHT GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS ONE WHILE GFS-UKMET FCST MUCH DEEPER FTR WITH ASOCTD SFC LO. GFS
FCSTG 984 MB LO OVR NERN PAC BY 84H WHILE ECMWF-GEMGLBL SHOW A NR 1000 MB LO.
ECMWF-GEMGLBL PREFERRED FOR THIS FTR.

OVR ERN RGNS THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEEP VERT LO PROGRESSING TWD
NFLD BUT DIFFER FOR FCST POSNS OF SFC LO FOR DAY5. ECMWF-GFS FCST MORE NLY
POSN THAN GEMGLBL SENDING VERT LO TO OFF NERN NFLD CSTS WHILE GEMGLBL MAKES
VERT LO TO SLIDE SLOLY S OF NFLD. ON THE OTHER HAND, UKMET KEEPING IT OVR
SWRN NFLD FOR T+120H. SO THERE IS SIG UNRELIABILITY WITH THIS BUT ALL MDLS
INDICATE THAT OVRNG WITH REDEVELOPING LO MOVG UP MORE ELY WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW OVR SERN LBRDR BY DAY5. SO FINALLY GNL WX FCST AS BY GEMGLBL SHD GV
GOOD INDICATIONS OVR ATLC RGN.

AND OVR THE WEST, GEMGLBL FINALLY LOOKS A GOOD COMPROMISE BTN ALL WITH ANYWAY
EXACT TIMING NOT TO BE XPCTD.

END/BACHAND