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Over the next 18 months, Ontario will continue to have an adequate supply of electricity to meet consumers’ needs. During that period, there will be more than 2,600 megawatts (MW) of capacity added to the grid, comprising two refurbished Bruce nuclear units with a capacity of 1,500 MW, approximately 400 MW of gas‐fired generation and more than 700 MW of grid‐connected renewable generation. On the transmission side, construction of the new Bruce to Milton line is progressing well, with completion expected soon. This new line, with its associated supporting facilities, will accommodate the full output from all eight generating units at the Bruce complex and the new renewable resources in southwestern Ontario.
By August 2013, the total wind and solar generation connected to the transmission and distribution networks in Ontario will reach approximately 4,000 MW. The Stakeholder Engagement (SE) 91 process is currently underway to address the need to have these renewable resources incorporated into the IESO dispatch process. In addition to mitigating surplus conditions, this will help match generation to demand when consumer use quickly ramps up and down.
The ongoing weakness of the global economy will continue to impact the Ontario economy over the forecast period. Conservation initiatives and the growth in embedded generation will put downward pressure on both peak demand and energy consumption. Combined, these impacts will limit the growth in energy consumption to a modest 0.4 per cent in 2012. Those same factors mean that peak demands will decrease over the same period. The following table summarizes the forecasted seasonal peak demand numbers.
Over the past several years, new sources of generation have been brought into service to meet essential future supply needs and replace coal‐fired capacity. The early incorporation of this supply, which includes additions of baseload generation from nuclear and renewable sources, coupled with declining demand during off‐peak periods, has triggered periods of surplus generation which will need to be managed until baseload generation begins to decline with nuclear refurbishment programs expected later in the decade. Over the next 18 months, the growing volumes of variable generation, the return to service of two additional nuclear units, and the introduction of the new Bruce to Milton line are driving expectations of both an increase to the frequency and magnitude of SBG, compared to the last few years.
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DEMAND OUTLOOK - SPRING 2012
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Demand Forecast
The mid-term forecasts contained in the Power Outlooks are determined based on econometric models and weather scenarios.
These forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts that are used in the operation of the power grid, and employ similar-day scenarios.
Each day's projected peak is posted on the Price and Demand page.
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SUPPLY OUTLOOK - SPRING 2012
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Matching Supply and Demand
The resource scenario shown above incorporates planned outages that generators have requested in order to perform maintenance on their equipment.
Should the IESO determine that there is a potential reliability concern due to a generator outage, the outage co-ordination process allows for the IESO to reject or recall outages.
In addition, Ontario has the capability to import electricity. |
These supply forecasts are superseded by nearer-term forecasts, that are available 34 days before the day-at-hand.
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