Forecasts

The IESO forecasts demand for electricity in the province and assesses whether the existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities are adequate to meet Ontario's needs. It does this through the publication of the Ontario Reliability Outlook and the quarterly 18-Month Outlook.

The Ontario Reliability Outlook reports on progress of the inter-related generation, transmission and demand management projects underway to meet future reliability requirements.

• Ontario Reliability Outlook: December 2007, Volume 2 Issue 2
• Ontario Reliability Outlook: March 2007, Volume 2 Issue 1
• Ontario Reliability Outlook: June 2006, Volume 1 Issue 2
• Ontario Reliability Outlook: February 2006, Volume 1 Issue 1

18-Month Outlook presents the IESO's assessment of the reliability of the Ontario electricity system for an 18-month period.

• 18-Month Outlook: An Assessment of the Reliability of the Ontario Electricity System from July 2008 to December 2009   (Originally posted on June 23, 2008. Revised Version 2.0 reposted on June 27, 2008. An error in the calculations of the bottled generation in the Bruce & West zones for the Planned Resource Scenario, Extreme Weather was corrected. This resulted in the revision of Figure 5.1, Tables A7 and A8, and Sections 6.4.5 and Conclusions: Transmission Adequacy. PDF: 602KB)
  • Ontario Demand Forecast (PDF: 405KB) describes in detail the 18-month forecast of electricity demand for Ontario used in this Outlook.
  • Methodology to Perform Long Term Assessments (PDF: 360KB) contains information regarding the methodology used to perform the demand forecast, resource adequacy assessments, and transmission adequacy assessments in this Outlook.
  • Ontario Transmission System (PDF: 1,033KB) provides specific details on the transmission system, including the major internal transmission interfaces and interconnections with neighbouring jurisdictions.
  • 18-Month Outlook: Resource Adequacy Assessment (Reposted on June 27, 2008. XLS: 155KB) tables in spreadsheet format.
  • Ontario Demand Forecast (XLS: 272KB) tables in spreadsheet format.
    

The Interim Update provides market participants with updated information for Total Resources, Total Reductions to Resources, Changes in Reserve Above Requirement values and revised Reserve Above Requirement values. Interim Updates are published during each month for which a full Outlook is not being published. Information is updated only for the Planned Resource, Normal Weather Scenario.

• 18-Month Outlook: Interim Update (Posted: August 25, 2008. XLS: 134KB) tables in spreadsheet format.

Previous 18-Month Outlook Reports

IESO Base Case Load Flows model the Eastern Interconnection with a detailed Ontario representation under normal system conditions. The model data is in Siemen’s PSS/E format.

The following IESO network models for the current year and some future years are available to Market Participants or potential Market Participants upon request:

• Summer and Winter Peak base cases of the current year
• Summer and Winter Peak base cases of selected future years (current year plus two, current year plus five, and current year plus ten)
• Short Circuit base case of the current year

To obtain a copy of one or more of these network models, please send a request by email to Customer Relations. Please note that a non disclosure agreement (NDA) is required if your request involves external system representation or any dynamics data. All requests will be considered on a case by case basis and are subject to confidentiality restrictions.

 

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Notice: The posting of submissions on the IESO's Web site is done for the convenience of market participants and other interested visitors to the IESO's site. When requesting or receiving submissions from market participants and/or industry stakeholders, it is the normal practice of the IESO to post the submissions on the IESO Web site. The IESO reserves the right to revise or withdraw any such submission at any time without further notice should the submission include, in the IESO's opinion, any defamatory or other inappropriate provisions. Participants are reminded that all the material that they submit may be published and that, in making a submission, their permission to publish the material is deemed to be granted.